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The Elephant and The Final Cut

Posted by Sportsfreak on Friday, 11 September 2009

In July, the NZRU, in an attempt to buy themselves time instead bought themselves trouble in deferring the announcement of who misses out on the trimmed-down NPC next year.

Of course, the only logical option was to relegate the bottom 4 clubs as is done ain any other competition in any sport anywhere in the world, but NZRU politics is a strange world.

Instead they came up with a strange and nebulous mix of criteria; playing performances over 4 years (nothing if not different), crowd numbers, and something called Community Rugby.

Steve, does making something so deliberately vague really protect you from lawyers?

In reality, there is an elephant in the room in all of this. The Criteria the Must Not Be Mentioned will be the main driver in picking the sides for the cut.

" they have Jim Peters; champion of the Underdog "

The 5 Super 15 franchise base teams are protected. Surrounded by a moat with sentry guards at the gate, and minefields in the drive type protected. So Auckland, Waikato, Wellington, Canterbury and Otago are on the list.

And so is Southland, Not for any of the documented reasons, but because of the elephant that is in this room; the need to be seen to be geographically fair. And it’s that elephant which has plenty of say.

And the Elephant must be conscious of the Super Franchises. Given Otago is guaranteed a place, and Southland outscores it on every other criteria, it’s a given that the Stags survive.

So that’s 6 in; who’s out? Counties-Manukau are out. They tried to get rid of them last time, their home ground is average, and they get small crowds. As a bonus, they’re not much good at rugby either.

Tasman can join them. A litigious dysfunctional collaboration lacking credibility. And the elephant gets them too; they won’t cut all 4 from the North Island.

Now, that leaves 6 teams after 4 places.

Hawkes Bay will be safe. They have understood which buttons to press. They’ve gone OK on the field, have upgraded their stadiums, and talked up their credentials as a proper union by applying for the last Super 15 slot. And they were smart enough to know when to drop that idea when they got the vibes from NZRU HQ.

Their recent form freefall won’t even be noticed.

Size, and the money washing around in Tauranga, means that Bay of Plenty are safe. Having a coach was never a criteria; official or otherwise.

And they will be joined by Taranaki who got to host a test last year, and also played the “Don’t we Look Bigger Than we Actually Are?” illusion in applying for a S15 franchise. The way they overplayed that would have earned them an entry in Tew’s black book, but not a huge one.

We’re getting there. Manawatu, North Harbour and Northland are left.

That regional elephant walks back into the room and Manawatu are out. Forget the big crowds this year, the academy, and that they play the most exciting rugby in the competition; they are gone.

The Control Freaks simply will not have 4 teams from the one franchise in the 10 team competition. Conversely, dropping 3 of the 4 most northern teams available would meet with disapproval from The Elephant.

So that leaves a domestic battle between North Harbour and Northland for the final chop. Northland have got their act together in recent years; a major improvement in grounds, improvement on the field and they have Jim Peters; champion of the Underdog. And he’s on the board now. Nice move.

But they’re still the final team to go. Albany is a vital part of RWC 2011, and the strange coaching mix there will be given a fast track to higher honours.

So there it is then; with the help of The Elephant it’s very straight forward. When they finally have the nerve to make The Final Cut, this is what it will be.

Fan; get ready. Something is flying your way.

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