Statistically Challenged – the Ranfurly Shield

By Richard Gordon

New Zealand Rugby regulations state that the Ranfurly Shield shall be a challenge open to all Unions. But is it really open to all Unions? A look at the stats since 2009 seem to suggest that some Unions are receiving very favourable treatment by NZR, and others have been left in the cold. For those Wellington fans reading this, the vague grumbles each time the draw comes out might be vindicated…

In order to analyse the stats, there are some key facts that need to be acknowledged:

• NZR makes the draw, in its sole discretion.
• There have been 75 Challenges by NPC teams and 28 by Heartland teams since 2009 (not including any in 2022).
• Statistically, the expected number of Challenges per team should be roughly 5 (for NPC teams) and 2 (for Heartland teams).
• Two Heartland Championship teams must have a Challenge before each NPC season starts. The Union currently holding the Shield picks out of the applications made, although an application by the current Meads Cup holder must be accepted.
• The Shield changing hands mid-season can make it difficult for NZR to ensure an even amount of challenges across the Unions.
• Having a separate Premiership and Championship may have made it difficult for NZR to ensure an even amount of challenges across the Unions.

Since the start of the 2009 season, only seven Unions have successfully Challenged for the Shield. These seven Unions have, largely, had the most Challenges. That is not a coincidence. The more Challenges NZR gives you, the more likely you are to win the Shield.

Otago have had the most Challenges, by a long way, with 10. That’s just under one per season on average. That’s 13% of all NPC Challenges. Out of those 10 Challenges, they’ve won the Shield 3 times.

Close behind are Hawke’s Bay, Southland, Taranaki, and Waikato – all of which have had 7 Challenges. Hawke’s Bay, Waikato, and Taranaki were each successful in 3 of those, while Southland were successful in 2. Each of these teams has had 9% of the available NPC Challenges. It’s worth noting that Manawatu have also had 7 Challenges, but are perennially awful, which explains the 0% success rate.

North Harbour and Wanganui (!!!!) are next on the list, with 6 Challenges each. North Harbour fall in the Manawatu bracket, while Wanganui haven’t got close either. Harbour have had 8% of the available NPC Challenges, while Wanganui have had a whopping 21% of the available Heartland Challenges. This is mostly explained by the fact that Wanganui consistently won the Meads Cup and therefore their Challenge must be accepted.

Three teams are on 5 Challenges each, and these include the remaining two successful Challengers – Canterbury and Counties. Canterbury has a shockingly good win % in Challenges – winning 80% of their Challenges. Counties have won 1. North Otago are also on 5 Challenges as a result of winning the Meads Cup a few times.

No team with fewer than 5 Challenges has won the Shield since 2009.

Every NPC team mentioned from now is statistically unlucky, or NZR just does not like them. Northland have had 4 Challenges, without success.

Auckland, and Bay of Plenty have had 3 Challenges each, without success. Auckland’s last Shield challenge was in 2015.

Now we get to the Unions NZR must really hate. Wellington and Tasman have only had 2 Challenges since 2009. That’s 3 below what they should get, and a measly 2.5% of the available Challenges. Tasman have only had 1 Challenge since 2012, and Wellington have only had 1 Challenge since 2014. To put this in perspective, 9 of the 12 Heartland teams have had as many or more Challenges, and Wanganui have had triple the number of Challenges as Tasman and Wellington.

For the remaining Heartland Teams, most have had 2 Challenges. South Canterbury can count themselves unlucky with only 1 Challenge, while West Coast and Buller have had zero. Given that NZR provide a transport subsidy for Heartland Challengers, the proud rugby heartland of the West Coast has been left high and dry.

When 1 team has had 5 times the Challenges as another team in a 13-year period, is the Ranfurly Shield really open to all Unions? Let’s hope NZR read this article and bring some fairness back into the Ranfurly Shield.

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