2024 Super Rugby Pacific – Final Preview

By James Rodbourn

Last week I provided roughly 1000 stats that showed the prevalence of home playoff wins in Super Rugby. So naturally at least one of the home teams was going to lose their semi-final, and unfortunately (for myself) it was the Hurricanes. So let’s get that part out of the way first.

Despite the multitude of historical stats in the Hurricanes favour, most people were expecting a close match or even a Chiefs upset, and so it proved as the Chiefs avenged 2 regular season losses to the Canes with a blistering 17-0 start that shellshocked the home side and quieted the crowd. They then backed it up with a smart game plan to suck the Hurricanes into kicking duels and target the breakdown, resulting in the Hurricanes turning the ball over 22 times (compared to just 8 from the Chiefs). Although the Canes battled back in the second half and should have taken the lead when Josh Moorby dropped the ball over the line, few could argue that the Chiefs weren’t the better team on the day and deserved their win.

For the Hurricanes, it was a harsh lesson in finals footy that the Chiefs themselves had been given by the Crusaders in the 2023 final in Hamilton. While they’re a young team who should be in a similar position next season, the Canes will rue squandering the rare chance to host a home final, while suffering the ignominy of being the first team since the 2012 Stormers to not at least make the final after finishing in 1^st place on the ladder.

The night before, it was yet another case of an Australian side competing well and holding their own for 80% of the game, but getting burnt badly when things don’t go to plan. The bumbling start from the Brumbies, especially when it came to handling the Blues’ kickoffs, combined with the execution of the Blues when gifted those entries into their opponent’s 22, meant that after 21 minutes the score was already 24-6 to the Blues, and the damage was done.

From there the result was largely a formality, and it’s now been 10 years since we had an Australian side in a Super Rugby final. The Blues weren’t at their clinical best in the second half as they provided the Brumbies with multiple opportunities to get back into the contest, but at the same time they were never truly threatened on the scoreboard, and in the process booked themselves a 6^th Super Rugby final.

And then there were 2.

 

Final – Blues (2^nd) vs Chiefs (4^th)

When: Saturday, 22^nd June. 7:05pm NZ time.

Where: Eden Park, Auckland.

TAB odds: Blues 1.45 (-5.5), Chiefs 2.60 (+5.5).

It’s under much different circumstances that the Chiefs go to Eden Park for the second time this month. This time they go looking to become just the 3^rd team to win Super Rugby after finishing outside the top 2 (the 1999 Crusaders and 2015 Highlanders, who also finished 4^th). Meanwhile the Blues are playing for their 4^th title, which would take them past the Bulls and into outright 2^nd for most Super Rugby titles.

Just 3 weeks ago it was an understrength Chiefs side that was beaten convincingly by the Blues, though as we all know 2 late Chiefs tries cost the Blues a bonus point and the top spot on the ladder. As fate and irony would have it, that try didn’t end up costing the Blues a home final anyway, while allowing them an easier semi-final opponent in the Brumbies. Quite the sliding doors moment, especially considering the same 2 teams are meeting again in the same location for the Final.

Also noteworthy is that despite having played 40 Super Rugby playoff games between them, these 2 teams have never played each other in a playoff game, which adds another little bit of spice and history to Saturday. The Blues have won 6 of the last 9 games between the teams however, including the last 4 at Eden Park.

As for the game itself, this is a much stronger Chiefs side making the trip this time, despite the loss of Samisoni Taukei’aho at hooker. The Chiefs will be banking on replacement hooker Tyrone Thompson holding his own, as the scrum is one of the few areas they may be able to target the Blues in. Surprisingly the Blues were one of the worst scrummaging teams in the competition this season, winning just 76% of them (2^nd worst percentage in Super Rugby Pacific).

Another area the Chiefs will have to be sharp in is the aforementioned kickoffs. In 2 of the more meaningful Blues wins this season (the semi-final and the 31-27 win over the Hurricanes), the Blues scored multiple tries directly from the receiving team not securing the kickoff, either via knock-ons or allowing the ball to bounce into touch in good field position. Between the strong boots of Damian McKenzie, Etene Nanai-Saturo and the returning Shaun Stevenson, the Chiefs must execute their exit plays to greater effect than the Hurricanes and Brumbies did.

The above areas aside, it’s hard to find many weaknesses in either team. The attack of both teams has been similar this season (across 16 games the Chiefs have scored 1 more point than the Blues). We can see in the graphic below that defence is one area the Blues seem to have an advantage over the Chiefs, and indeed the Blues defence in 2024 was clearly better than all of the other playoff teams as well. The Blues conceded almost 6 less points and 1 less try per game than the Chiefs did this season, a sizeable gap.

Last week the Chiefs scored all 3 of their tries from broken play and well outside the Hurricanes’ 22. If they can’t garner similar opportunities and run the Blues around the park on Saturday, it’s likely the Blues who will prevail if and when the game turns into more of a grind. Especially because the Blues have shown they can still score points when the shoe is on the other foot, and they’re forced to batter away through their ball carrying-forwards (the surprising addition of Patrick Tuipolotu is a boon for the Blues in this regard).

The Blues will be buoyed further by what has been already confirmed as a sellout crowd. They have very much enjoyed playing at home in recent times, winning 23 of 27 there since the advent of Super Rugby Pacific in 2022. They’ll also be going for their 16^th home win in a row, and you have to go back to the 1996-98 seasons to find a better Blues home winning streak (21).

Home teams have also won 18 of the 26 Super Rugby finals, and while the Blues will appreciate that home advantage, away teams have won 4 of the last 7 finals. Foremost in the mind of the Blues out of those 4 will be their own loss to the Crusaders in the 2022 final, and given that the Chiefs are fresh off upsetting the Hurricanes’ apple cart, the last thing the Blues will want is to drop a second straight home final to a New Zealand rival.

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