Climbing the mountain.

By Benji Crossley

In the build-up to either the semi-final or final of the 2019 Rugby World Cup, Conrad Smith in his role as a pundit for Spark Sport said something that has stuck with me ever since. He said, that in his experience, it was almost impossible or at least very difficult to put three big performances together in the last three weeks of the World Cup. The implication being that getting through a quarter, semi then final and ending up with a shiny gold trophy at the end of it did require a little bit of luck.

As I understand it, one of the flaws of the All Black campaign in 2007 was that they believed that going to the top of the mountain emotionally for three knockout games in a row was impossible and therefore they didn’t press all of the emotional buttons in the lead up the game in Cardiff. Well, we all know what happened after that.

With the above in mind and the unbalanced draw throwing up cracking quarter finals to be followed by slightly underwhelming semi-finals, I have taken a look at the path every World Cup winner of the professional era has taken through the knockout stages.

 

1999 – Australia

Quarter-Final	Semi-Final	Final
24 – 9 over Wales	27 – 21 over South Africa (after extra-time)	35 – 12 over France

The Wallabies of 1999 probably fly under the radar a little bit when you discuss the great international teams, but they won this World Cup only conceding one try.

On the face of it they plotted a reasonably easy path through the knockout phases until you remember Stephen Larkham kicked a 50-metre drop goal to get past a pretty limited South Africa (they had made the semi after Jannie de Beer kicked five drop goals in the quarter-final) in that semi-final.

Perhaps the team that best proves the case in this tournament was the runners-up, France. They demolished Argentina then put together one of the great forty minutes of rugby to beat the All Blacks but simply couldn’t replicate the intensity or quality the week later.

 

2003 – England

Quarter-Final	Semi-Final	Final
28 – 17 over Wales	24 – 7 over France	20 – 17 over Australia

History remembers this tournament as a parade of Wilkinson drop-goals as England marched serenely through the tournament (that’s what Clive Woodward would have you believe anyway) but actually, outside of a dominant win over France in the semi-final England were stretched in both the other knockout games.

Wales outscored England 3 tries to 1 and led the match 10 – 3 at half time. Then Wilkinson kicked into gear and drove England home, but it was anything but comfortable. The semi-final was the most clinical of the performances and the French team of that era probably had designs on being the second best team in the world.

Everyone remembers how the final played out, both teams traded blows until Wilkinson kicked the drop-goal that eventually won it. But much like 1999 you could make a case that the beaten finalists had gone to the well the week before to demolish the All Blacks and they just couldn’t hit the heights necessary in the final.

 

2007 – South Africa

Quarter-Final	Semi-Final	Final
37 – 20 over Fiji	37 – 13 over Argentina	15 – 6 over England

On paper, this looks like the best performance across a knockout stage, but it must also be noted that it is still the easiest path that anyone has had to plot through a knockout stage.

Fiji had qualified for the quarterfinals by virtue of beating Wales in the group and with 20 minutes to go in the quarterfinal were all tied up with the Springboks. South Africa ended up kicking away in the last 20-minutes, but Fiji was a tier 2 side. Argentina had been the darlings of the 2007 tournament, getting through France and Ireland in the group and they were stacked with great talents like Augustin Pichot. But this is Argentina before they joined the Rugby Championship and didn’t play the volume of fixtures against top sides that they do now.

South Africa had beaten England by 50 in the group stages so seeing them in a final was a big surprise, but Jonny Wilkinson got fit for a month and got them to a final where a TMO on a different day gives Mark Cueto’s try, and history is very different.

The odd thing about this South Africa is that this was the beginning of a very good side, the Springboks of 2008 and 2009 were a magnitude better than the team that won a World Cup, but they weren’t that team yet in 2007.

 

2011 – New Zealand

Quarter-Final	Semi-Final	Final
33 – 10 over Argentina	20 – 6 over Australia	8 – 7 over France

This tournament perhaps best illustrates the point I am trying to make.

New Zealand put together sixty pretty good minutes against Argentina who had given them a fright in the first 20 minutes before putting together their best 80 minutes of the tournament against Australia in the semi-final. Bearing in mind what a mental barrier, and the scarring of 2007, getting past that semi-final must have taken a massive mental effort.

While the mental effort and the resilience in the final is hard to fault, the performance was poor. France in 2011 were a team on the wane and the players were in open mutiny. They were in the final themselves because they had got past an even worse England in the quarter-final and then snuck by 14-man Wales in the semi.

 

2015 – New Zealand

Quarter-Final	Semi-Final	Final
62 – 13 over France	20 – 18 over South Africa	34 – 17 over Australia

 When people talk about the best team to win a Rugby World Cup, the 2015 All Blacks are usually the top on most peoples list. But the semi-final win over South Africa stands out as a  performance about just getting through.

The quarterfinal is one of the great performances by any team and if you get a chance to watch a replay of that now, do it. That was that team at its absolute best. But against a France team that was not flash it must be said.

Then the semi-final against the Springboks in the rain. That was not a great Springbok side, it was one in between generations. The tail end of the team that had dominated the game around the turn of the decade and the early stages of the team that would win the tournament four years later. They pushed the All Blacks all the way in that game though and it was only a massive defensive effort and Dan Carter kicking a drop goal that saw the All Blacks prevail.

The win over Australia in the final looks more comfortable than it was by virtue of the late Beauden Barrett try but it was a very good All Black win against a very good Wallaby side.

 

2019 – South Africa

Quarter-Final	Semi-Final	Final
26 – 3 over Japan	19 – 16 over Wales	32 – 12 over England

 Like their counterparts in 2007 the 2019 Springboks got lucky in the quarterfinals. Yes, Japan had been brilliant through the group stage, but their style was perfectly suited for that Springbok team to take apart and slowly strangle. Japan were purposefully lightweight and wanted to spend as little time with the ball in contact as possible. The Springboks were the polar opposite. They strangled Japan and pushed them around the park in a dominant physical performance.

The win over Wales in the semifinal was a gruelling affair with both teams only scoring one try but the kicking of Handre Pollard proved to be the difference.

The victory in the final was the Springboks best performance of the tournament (which is the dream I guess?). They belted England 32 – 12 and completely took apart England who went into the game as the favourites. Again, England perhaps best prove my point in this tournament. They had been brilliant in taking apart Australia and New Zealand in the two weeks prior but simply could not get to the same heights in the final.

So, what does that tell us about this weekend, and the one after? South Africa and New Zealand had to climb the highest peaks to win in the quarter final. If they hit those heights again this weekend, what will they have left in the tank for the final? Does the lopsided draw mean that they will not have to hit those heights to win this weekend? From a New Zealand perspective, Argentina who are an emotional team at the best of times will have gone to the wall to beat Wales and perhaps won’t be able to again? Fiji are clearly a good side but will England have a bit more left in the tank when they face the Springboks this weekend?

It is all fun and games and we won’t know anything until after the final, but history tells us the team that wins the World Cup will probably have a down week in the knockout phases and it’s who manages that the best and mitigates the damage who will hold that shiny gold trophy in Paris.

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