Italy. Hope Unfulfilled

By Keith Miller

Another Rugby World Cup Quarterfinal series approaches, another farewell to Italy in the knockout stages.  In fact, having been at every World Cup since the inaugural tournament in 1987, they again claim third place in their pool – something they have done on every occasion with the exception of 1999, where Tonga beat them to it.

In reality, 1987 aside, they haven’t really looked that close to progressing (even taking into consideration the 0-0 draw with the All Blacks after a cancellation in 2019).  Their record of 15 wins in 35 matches overall gives them the most matches won of those countries that have never made it to the quarterfinals.

This was all meant to change for them back in 2000, as the Five Nations increased to Six, and they were given more meaningful exposure to top tier rugby.  This was going to be the making of the Azzuri – things can only get better, right?  Well, it’s never happened.  In fact, you could argue that it has made very little difference whatsoever.

In the 24 seasons that Italy has participated in the Six Nations, they have finished fourth twice, fifth on four occasions and 75% of the time – 18 seasons – they have claimed the wooden spoon.  In total, they have only won 13/120 games (more than half of those wins coming against Scotland), a paltry winning record of 10.83%.  Only twice have they won more than one game in a season.  Since 2015, they have won exactly one match in the competition, that coming as a result of their win over a turgid Welsh side last year.

But what about the wider landscape?  Unfortunately, it doesn’t really make for better reading.

In the 24 years since they joined that competition, against Tier 1 Nations (outside of the Six Nations), Italy has only ever had four wins.  It is also 10 years since they last won in Rome, although a stadium rebuild there means that they have at least won a couple in Florence.

The argument for keeping Italy involved in the Six Nations – to the potential detriment of South Africa as some would have it – is made up of three distinct parts:-

1. As an equal shareholder in the competition, it is highly unlikely the Italian Rugby Federation is about to vote itself out of such a lucrative opportunity
2. To remove Italy from the competition would be a slap in the face for World Rugby’s attempt to grow the game in general
3. Italy at the age group levels of U20 and U18 are performing well in the corresponding Six Nations tournaments, so there is hope for the future

The third point is probably the most relevant, and there are at least some promising signs for the future.  But that hope will most likely start to dwindle should this promise not be converted to real results.

The Italians were given a huge break in joining the Six Nations when they did, particularly with the relatively recent emergence of some other European teams on the horizon – the performance of Portugal in this year’s World Cup and the recent improvement of Georgia spring to mind.

For the meantime, it will require more patience.  Italy remain the 12^th ranked team in World Rugby and there is nothing to suggest that will improve in the short term.  Even if their age group success was to be repeated at senior level, you would have to hope that there is another wave of young talent coming through to sustain, and even capitalise on, any such momentum.

Otherwise, it is hard to see Italy improving – in any great hurry anyway – on their Six Nations record of one win every two years.

Follow Keith on Twitter