Lawson’s big chance
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By Aiden McLaughlin
In the rumour filled sport of Formula One, it was the worst kept secret in the paddock and beyond. But now it’s official. Kiwi Liam Lawson has replaced Daniel Ricciardo and will race for RB for the remaining six weekends of the season, starting at the United States Grand Prix in just over three weeks’ time.
Lawson will now add to the five-race cameo he had for the RB team in 2023, after Ricciardo injured his wrist in practice at the Dutch Grand Prix. On that occasion, Lawson jumped in the car and finished the race in P13, three and a half seconds and two places ahead of established teammate Yuki Tsunoda.
Lawson went on to finish ahead of Tsunoda in Japan, before Tsunoda won their head-to-head batttle in Qatar. Prior to that, Lawson had finished P11 in Italy, and P9 in Singapore, which secured his first World Championship points (Tsunoda failed to start in Italy and failed to finish in Singapore).
Perhaps the biggest head turning moment over Lawson’s five races, was the second qualifying session in Singapore. With only the top ten drivers qualifying for the final session, Lawson qualified in 10th place, edging out Max Verstappen by 0.007 seconds with a drive James Bond would have been proud of.
There were plenty of observers, qualified or not, that thought Lawson had done enough to keep the seat for the rest of 2023, but when the Australian was fit and ready, he was back in the seat for, ironically, the United States Grand Prix.
2024 has been a test of Lawson’s patience. He filled the role of test and reserve driver for both RB and their senior team, Red Bull. There was plenty of talk swirling around that if they didn’t offer him a seat for 2025, by a certain date, he would be on the open market.
With Max Verstappen contracted until 2028, Sergio Perez signing an extension through until the end of 2026 and Tsunoda also extending until the end of next year, it just left one option for the Kiwi – taking Ricciardo’s seat. But now that he has, what exactly can he achieve?
Really, you need to look at the four seats across RB and Red Bull as a four-driver team. In the past, if someone at Red Bull has not been performing, then someone from their junior team has been moved across to try and do better. Verstappen himself replaced Daniil Kvyat in 2016, with Alex Albon replacing Pierre Gasly during the 2019 season. We have also seen movements in the off-season.
So, despite Perez having a contract until 2026, could Lawson actually take his seat at Red Bull as early as next year?
The first objective is always to beat your own teammate, so beating Tsunoda is a non-negotiable. Then, it’s a question of by how much. Tsunoda is currently in his fourth year at RB, and you’ll struggle to find anyone who thinks he should move up to sit alongside Max Verstappen. He received a one-year extension earlier this year and frankly if the powers that be rated him highly, they’d be looking to tie him in for much longer.
Perez has had his struggles all year and there was widespread surprise when he got his contract extension in June this year, before the Canadian Grand Prix; team boss Christian Horner said it was about continuity and stability, as well as giving Perez a confidence boost that would hopefully see things improve on track.
But things haven’t really improved, and Perez sits eighth in the drivers standings, a huge 187 points behind Verstappen. Even worse, because of his lowly points total, Red Bull seem destined to lose their constructors title to a resurgent McLaren, who they suddenly trail by 41 points. Horner may love the sponsorship money Perez brings in, but ultimately, he can’t carry an underperforming driver indefinitely.
Red Bull have the advantage of seeing all the data first hand and they will have already been closely watching, and recording Lawson’s work in the simulators, as well as test sessions on the track. But there’s no substitute for performance in the heat of battle. Lawson has six weekends to show why he should be in the top team, alongside a three-time world champion. His destiny is in his own hands.
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