The Contrarian View – why you should put your money on England this weekend.
3
Swing Low
The English are at $3.30 (Head to head) and $4.35 (12 points or less) at the TAB. Here’s Five reasons you should put your hard earned dosh on the Red Rose of England this weekend.
The Twickenham Factor
Forget about what you have read in the press – the English want this game and they want it badly. This is all about setting Twickenham up as a proverbial fortress in the lead-up to next year’s RWC in the same way Eden Park acted for New Zealand in 2011. The English aren’t stupid and they aren’t arrogant. Coach Stuart Lancaster is shrewdly setting about picking apart the key parts of New Zealand’s recent success and using them for himself. Expect the All Black Haka to be drowned out by fervent singing and an all-out English assault in the first 20 minutes.
Goal-kicking
Cruden was well off target in Chicago and it won’t get any easier this week. The first one is crucial and with no back up in the run on squad it is a huge area of risk. Forget about fancy, back handed off-loads and funny handshakes – goal-kicking is what wins test matches.
SBW
Yes SBW. A sixty minute romp against the USA on top of a couple of cameos in the ITM Cup is not ideal preparation for this kind of match. A lack of kicking game in the New Zealand midfield looms as a big weakness in what is expected to be a game won and lost on territory.
Road Warriors?
Look closely and you will see that New Zealand haven’t been that flash this year off-shore. Aside from a romp in South America, a draw and a near loss to Australia added to a real loss versus South Africa has been the lot of the All Blacks away from New Zealand in 2014.
Fatigue
The Super Rugby Season started on the 21st February 261 days ago with almost half the All Black team playing in the opening Chiefs vs Crusaders fixture. Last week showed some of the first signs of the team wilting through injury. On the converse, the English team are peaking nicely in the middle of their season.
The Twickenham Factor :
Best way to take the crowd factor out is for the AB’s to score early points, especially a try or two… hope the poms try to run the ball, then they’ll make more mistakes & when can counter-attack from their turnovers.
Goal-kicking :
Even Carter can have a shocker with his goal-kicking, I’ve have confidence in either Cruden or Barrett doing the job in that area.
SBW :
Yeah, the tactical kicking game is a real worry at 2nd-five, which is why I would of had Crotty there, then SBW could of come off the bench when the opposition tire a bit & use his off-loading ability to put our backs into space.
Road Warriors?
Wouldn’t worry too much about the away match stuff, AB’s are normally perform pretty well in those situations.
Fatigue :
With the fatigue thing that’s just the way it goes, all teams have to go through it, with the great depth we have need to use most of the squad in these 3 tests so fatigue doesn’t come into it too much.
SBW was my man of the match last weekend. You were right about the goal kicking though
Made at least 3 poor decisions on attack which cost NZ tries in addition to a non-existent kicking game 5/10.