The World Cup Big Four. The stats add up
0By The Spotter
Aside from conventional wisdom telling us that one or two of the remaining ‘Big Four’ of either Brazil, Germany or Argentina (the Italians of course having left early with England from their group) will be playing in the final of the FIFA World Cup in Rio de Janeiro on July 14 (NZ time), a compelling and somewhat startling statistic as to why one of these four should advance to the final two before the first ball was even kicked-off three weeks ago came to my mind the other night as I was drifting off into the land of football nod.
An amazing sequence among the Big Four stretching right back to the inaugural World Cup tournament in Uruguay in 1930 was finally snapped when Spain overcame Germany to face Holland in the final in South Africa 2010. This being that either one or both of the Big Four appeared in all eighteen final games to decide the World Cup winner staged before 2010.
It falls this way:
1930: Argentina (runner-up),
34: Italy (winner),
38: Italy (winner),
50: Brazil (runner-up),
54: West Germany (winner), ‘
58: Brazil (winner),
62: Brazil (winner),
66: West Germany (runner-up),
70: Brazil (winner), Italy (runner-up)
74: West Germany (winner),
78: Argentina (winner),
82: Italy (winner), West Germany (runner-up),
86: Argentina (winner), West Germany (runner-up),
90: West Germany (winner). Argentina (runner-up),
94: Brazil (winner), Italy (runner-up),
98: Brazil (runner-up)
02: Brazil (winner), Germany (runner-up),
06: Italy (winner).
This perfect streak until 2010 also bears a significant win percentage of seventy-eight. Very passable indeed considering the immense pressure and expectation piled on the nations making it that far.
So there you have it. Almost a shoo-in then that one of those teams will be at the big dance in a little over a week. However if the sequence does not revert back to type on this occasion, don’t write to me and complain if you are now roughing it in the backyard in a tent after being banished there by your other half for blowing all the rainy housekeeping money on a bet gone wrong.
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