All Black Depth Part 1

By Benji Crossley

Four x Four x Four – Four deep in four years to win a fourth World Cup

This piece began formulating in my mind after the frustration of the second test in Argentina. Not solely because we’d lost but because we’d lost and in the process it felt like had missed another opportunity to learn something about our fringe players. The theme of the first season and a half of the Robertson regime had been an apparent conservatism of selection which played out once again in Argentina.

By half way through the second season what more did we know about Reuben Love, about Emoni Narawa, Josh Lord, Brodie McAllister, George Bell etc etc.

This frustration coupled with the public utterances from inside the camp about a desire to be four deep in every position lead to me wonder if the words coming from the camp matched the actions we were seeing in terms of selection. Was Robertson picking match day 23s that would build depth or had he actually inherited a reasonably deep squad with a fair chunk of experience.

The perception and my general vibe of negativity hasn’t been completely supported by the data but was also slightly shifted by a win at Eden Park. Luckily the negative vibes came flooding back after whatever it was we saw in the second half in Wellington.

Below I break down every position and look about where that position is on the road to being four deep and are we seeing enough in terms of blooding new players to really envisage a world where we can genuinely claim to be four deep by 2027. The stats below were all done pre-Wellington so will likely be a test match off for all players who played in Wellington.

In researching I looked at the most famous example of “All Black depth” being the 10 jersey in 2011. I clearly misremembered that because our second and third choice 10’s in that tournament had played six tests between them prior to kick-off. I’d argue that with the benefit of hindsight we weren’t actually four deep, it’s just that the guy who was fourth on the depth chart by 2011 was the guy they’d wasted the three years previous on.

 

Position by Position

Player	Caps	Caps under current regime
Codie Taylor	101	16
Samisoni Taukei’aho	36	6
Asafo Aumua	20	14
Brodie McAlister	1	1
George Bell	1	1

 

This is one of the positions where despite injuries we still haven’t seen enough of the fourth choice guys to know if they’re truly up to it. The Taylor/Taukei’aho/Aumua combination has essentially been the All Black group since about 2022 and despite all three of them missing significant numbers of tests, the fourth choice guy hasn’t been given nearly enough chances. This lack of experience clearly showed out in Wellington, you have to be some kind of player to get dropped into that environment in the second half and thrive, Brodie McAlister doesn’t seem to be that player. Maybe he will be with another 10 tests under the belt, but they need to find ten tests for him from somewhere.

Ethan De Groot	35	13
Tamaiti Williams	20	12
Ollie Norris	3	3
George Bower	23	1

 

Tyrel Lomax	46	14
Fletcher Newell	28	15
Pasilio Tosi	11	11
Tevita Mafileo	0	0

I premise the analysis on both propping positions by saying I really do not understand what makes a prop good, especially at set piece but it seems pretty clear that between Williams/Lomax/De Groot/Newell we have a good core group of four. Clearly Jason Ryan likes Ollie Norris and he has shown signs in his limited outings that he could be up to it with the same going for Pasilio Tosi. If they’re serious about looking at Mafileo as an option then they should be looking to give him a run shortly. With Ofa Tu’ungafasi hopefully back in 2026 the propping stocks are in good shape and are a nice combination of guys who were well in place by 2023 with a sprinkling of new talent coming through.

Do the scrum struggles of the South Africa series raise questions about whether this group are up to it? Maybe, but I also feel like its largely the same group who had formed a very powerful scrummaging unit through 22/23/24 so I’ll back them to come right.

Scott Barrett	84	15
Tupou Va’ai	43	18
Fabian Holland	6	6
Patrick Tuipolotu	54	11
Sam Darry	6	6
Naito Ah Kuoi	0	0

 

In the locking spots (and wing spots) I’ve looked at going six deep to cover both jerseys.

Again, this feels like a position where we are well covered with both Holland and Darry having taken the opportunities they have been given while Tupou Va’ai has blossomed into a true world class option. With the captain being guaranteed one of the jerseys (a whole other conversation if Holland continues to develop) then the first four look like they’ll be in a position to have plenty of experience heading into 2027. How they find opportunities to blood Darry and potentially even Ah Kuoi (included because he spent all of the French series with the squad) will be key if they want to have that extra cover.

Like the props, this looks to be a nice blend of guys who have been around a while along with exciting new talent.

Simon Parker	2	2
Tupou Va’ai	43	18
Samipeni Finau	12	11
Wallace Sititi	12	12
Luke Jacobson*	25	6

 

The six jersey is perhaps the most talked about jersey in the country and you could argue we have ended up with depth in the position because they’ve tried so many guys there.

Even Shannon Frizell, who many would like back, only really nailed the jersey down in 2023.  In Simon Parker’s performance in Auckland it finally appeared like we had our guy. But we’ve thought that before. How his development is managed will be key. Behind him, this is one of the positions where we just don’t know enough.

Is Finau up to it?  Is Va’ai a genuine option or should we just leave him alone at lock. Wallace Sititi showed more than enough in the jersey last year but he needs to be left at 8.

Parker is showing signs that he’s the answer but short of a major transformation in a couple of players, it’s hard to see how we will be able to claim we’re anything like four deep by 2027. Being two deep right now would probably do.

*I’ve asterisked Luke Jacobson in every loose forward position for this exercise because despite being arguably the form loose forward in Super Rugby, injury has curtailed his involvement with the All Blacks so frankly we don’t even know what position they see him as.

Ardie Savea	100	19
Du’Plessis Kirifi	5	5
Peter Lakai	3	3
Dalton Papali’i	37	5
Luke Jacobson*	25	6

Ardie Savea is so so good that he just has to play, if he didn’t I shudder to think what might become of this generation of All Black teams so the opportunity to build depth below him will naturally be limited. (Sam Cane has played thirteen tests in four years before the 2015 World Cup as the understudy to a pretty decent player).

It seems like the Papali’I, who Foster had spent a few years developing as the heir to Cane, has been cast aside while Kirifi and Lakai have been preferred. Kirifi has been solid without being spectacular in his limited opportunities thus far while Lakai shone brightly in his one big test in Paris.

If they see Jacobson as a genuine 7 option then he’s got plenty of experience under his belt and strikes as a great second/third choice to have floating around squads.

You get the feeling we’ll probably be ok at 7 but in many ways having to do without Savea (maybe resting him after his time in Japan next year) could be a good way to answer some questions about the guys sitting below him.

Wallace Sititi	12	12
Ardie Savea	100	19
Simon Parker	2	2
Christian Lio-Willie	3	3
Luke Jacobson*	25	6

Sititi now he’s fit is the obvious first choice in this position while having a guy who won world player of the year as a second option isn’t a bad position to be in. Parker made his test debut at 8 but they need to leave him at 6 to let him settle into that role.

Again, Jacobson feels like a serviceable third option while Christian Lio-Willie was solid without being spectacular in his opportunities against France.

Giving Lio-Willie another crack or settling on Jacobson as your utility guy means they’ll probably be alright at 8 but given Sititi’s issues with injuries and the importance of Savea at 7 they would like to be able to settle on a second choice.

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